It is mid-June in 2004 and a federal election campaign is in full swing. The newspapers have Canada’s two main parties in a dead heat. Here’s a conversation between a friend and myself, starting with the friend:
At the August 2001 meeting of skeptics in Toronto, I carried out an experiment to illustrate how poorly people estimate the chances of coincidences occurring. I asked people entering the meeting to give their birth dates in months and days, like August 12 or October 31.
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